Give thought to this Thanksgiving Day question: What will the winter season of 2023-24 look like in the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley? Or in the higher elevations of the Palouse and the Camas Prairie?

It’s a good news, bad news expectation.

It’s good news for those who dislike driving in snow. Or too many mornings of shoveling snow from your sidewalk or parking area. It’s not good news for winter recreationists who want plenty of snow for skiing or snowmobiling.

The key: An El Nino is upon us.

During an El Nino winter, the Pacific Northwest is usually drier and warmer. The El Nino has an 80% chance of extending to next spring, too. Will it be present in the summer of 2024? It’s too early for the experts to forecast summer.

That’s according to reliable Charlotte Dewey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Spokane.

The El Nino has replaced a three-year La Nina, which in winter meant typically wetter and cooler conditions throughout the Northwest. That was welcomed by skiers and snowmobilers. Yes, El Ninos and La Ninas are opposites in naturally occurring weather phenomena. The Northwest has never had four consecutive years with La Ninas.

In more technical terms, El Ninos happen when the trade winds — winds that blow along the equator, east to west over the Pacific Ocean — weaken. That causes the warmer water to move east toward South America, accumulating there before moving north to California and south toward Chile.

What you and I care about, however, is what’s likely between now and spring.

In the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley, winter a year ago produced about 16 inches of snow. That was less than the 22½ inches two winters ago. The average snowfall is 15½ inches. What’s the likely scenario in winter 2023-24? Count on 12 inches, about 22% less than average.

For the Palouse (and that’s akin to the Camas Prairie)? Yes, Moscow and Pullman have considerably more snow than Lewiston-Clarkston (but also no triple digits in the summer). The average winter in Pullman has 36 inches of total snow, with 46 inches in La Nina winters. Moscow has an average of 49 inches of snow, increasing to 67 inches in La Nina years.

How about this winter? Most likely, Pullman will receive 25 inches of snow, about 30% less than average. That would mean some 34 inches in Moscow.

Weather expert Dewey cautions that our winter will have some cold days and will likely have a heavy snowfall, even with the El Nino pattern. But storms are likely to have less duration than the last three winters.

I tend to measure Lewiston-Clarkston winter snow by how many times I shovel the driveway. Last winter, it was five times. The first was on Nov. 28 with about 3 inches at our home. The final was shoveling about 2 inches on Feb. 22. My expectation is shoveling only four times in 2023-24. That means snowfall No. 1, with shoveling a novelty and fun, will followed by three other shovel mornings with some grumbling. We’ll see.

So, a memory test.

How was summer 2023?

You might remember it as having triple digits only in July and August, which is pretty normal. (June triple digits, on average, happen only once a year, with none since a half-dozen in 2021, and September only once every five years.)

You might remember the highest temperature was 109, back on Aug. 13. We had only one prolonged run of 100 or more degrees. That was from Aug. 14-17, four days in a row. In total, we had 13 triple-digit days, the first on July 8 (100 degrees) and the last on Aug. 28 (103 degrees).

Last summer had fewer triple digits than 2022’s 18 or 2021’s 24, the highest count in the last 22 years. That’s despite 2023’s triples being slightly more than the 22-year average of 11.8.

Dewey described last summer’s warmest temperatures as being less extreme and without prolonged heat.

And, you ask, how was my prognostication on triple-digit days for summer, 2023? My guesstimate was 16 triple temp days, two less than in 2022.

And how did I fare on my second annual triple-digit contest with Tribune City Editor Matt Baney, again for a Susan Anthony dollar? This is a report. It is not gloating. My guess was better than Baney’s 20.

I’d say our valley summer, in retrospect, was quite delightful.

Alford is president of TPC Holdings, parent company of the Daily News. He may be contacted at alajr@lmtribune.com or at (208) 848-2250.