This editorial was published by the Lewiston Tribune and written by Tribune Opinion page editor Marty Trillhaase.
This time it’s different.
How often have you heard that claim about a political shift away from the GOP’s dominance over Idaho?
But the view from 35,000 feet — or at least that of Politico’s Liz Crampton — suggests problems ahead for Idaho Republicans and opportunities for Democrats.
Start with the more than 80 Democrats who filed for state legislative seats. That’s the largest number of candidates Democrats have recruited in three decades.
“I would always say to people, there is no cavalry coming to save us here in Idaho, and it’s getting worse and worse every year,” Democratic Executive Director Jared DeLoof told Politico. “The place they want to take us is really scary and we can’t take it lying down. That really resonated.”
Perhaps Sen. Brian Lenney, R-Nampa, was justified in his confidence when he told Politico: “Democrats just can’t win in this state because their ideas don’t resonate with the people.”
On the other hand, it’s been a long time since Idaho Democrats tested his premise. Look over the political landscape inventoried in Crampton’s reporting and you can see seeds for Democratic optimism:
For the first time in recent memory, a plurality — 43% — told Boise State University’s Public Policy Survey that their state is on the “wrong track.”
If results in other states are any indication, the GOP’s abortion ban is political kryptonite — and Republican leadership refused to consider a compromise heath exception that might have slowed the exodus of physicians from the Gem State.
Ignoring nearly 70% of the voters, GOP lawmakers empowered fringe groups with a bounty against public and school libraries.
Waging culture wars against the state’s marginalized LGBTQ minority may not play well outside the GOP’s narrow ideological base.
Politico did not mention it, but the GOP has been flirting with an unpopular voucher bill that would drain limited state funds from public schools to subsidize the private education of wealthier students.
Then there’s the weird stuff, such as Blanchard Republican Rep. Heather Scott’s assertion that Idahoans needed more protection from cannibalism or Eagle Republican Rep. Ted Hill’s suggestion that unsupervised school employees carry concealed firearms to work.
From the outside looking in, Idaho’s Republican Party is fractured. At the party level, Chairperson Dorothy Moon and her followers are at odds with the establishment wing of the party.
Attorney General Raúl Labrador is nipping at Gov. Brad Little’s heels.
GOP central committees from north central Idaho to Ada County and eastern Idaho have censured Republican lawmakers who aren’t extreme enough to their liking.
When one side is so busy eating its young, there’s an opening for its opposition.
Don’t discount the rumblings of voter discontent — whether it was last summer’s recall of the hard-right trustees who hired the unqualified ideologue Branden Durst to serve as West Bonner County School District superintendent or the initiative campaign to open the primary election Moon’s wing of the GOP dominates.
None of that translates into an imminent realignment of Idaho politics this year.
Idaho Democrats typically are short of cash — often because the national Democratic Party writes off the Gem State.
Many of their candidates now on the ballot are relative newcomers.
Still, Idaho Republicans often deplete their campaign treasury waging primary campaigns. If Democrats can round up enough resources, many of them could be at least financially competitive in the fall.
A bitter and polarizing GOP primary season in the spring may encourage moderate Republicans to split their tickets in November.
Democrats aren’t trying to flip the Legislature, just make a down payment on breaking the GOP’s supermajority over time. They’re realistically taking aim at swing districts from Hailey, Pocatello, Boise and Moscow.
If history is any guide, that might be enough.
Democrats didn’t win a lot of seats in their 1988 efforts to hold the GOP accountable for stingy public education budgets. But they managed to defeat then-Senate President Pro Tem Jim Risch, R-Boise. And that sobered the GOP legislative majority that remained in place.
Flip even a handful of Republican seats this fall and Idaho Democrats just could stop the momentum behind a voucher bill or even discourage lawmakers from repealing the Open Primary Initiative in the 2025 legislative session.
A huge change it’s not. But given Idaho’s current political direction, any modification would be welcomed. — M.T.
