There’s been a huge amount of coverage of the Russo-Ukrainian War. But if your only source of information is the mainstream media, then you’re very likely being persuaded that NATO should get involved in the conflict, that Russia is somehow losing this war, and that the entire freedom of the West is at stake. To not do so is to betray the heroic Ukrainian leadership and prepare for the downfall of the West.
The clincher is that you should send your sons and daughters to die in nuclear fire in what will undoubtedly be the ultimate conflict for freedom in the world, while you watch on TV, or Facebook. My mind reels at this idiotic interpretation.
First off, the basics. This is a war that has been going on for eight years. The start of this most recent chapter is properly credited to Vladimir Putin, who has locked himself up for the past two years because of his COVID-19 paranoia. Apparently, Putin has only been seeing a small handful of actual humans in the flesh, and they must sit, masked, far away down a table more than 20 feet in length. All others must use video to talk to him. For those who insist on maintaining their own COVID-19 paranoia, you might consider how your efforts to mainstream your pathologies are affecting the world. You probably didn’t count on someone whose finger is on the nuclear button to be on your team.
Second, the Ukrainians are putting up a heroic defense. I have an intrinsic dog in the fight — I have friends in Kyiv, and I’ve spent the last week talking to my networks in surrounding countries attempting to find ways to assist. Some of these are young men, and have joined the Ukrainian army. Others have families and want to get out. The situation is fluid.
What is becoming obvious is that no matter what is done, Ukraine will lose this war. The original Russian plan was to capture Ukraine intact. When the Ukrainians decided to fight, that option was moved off the table, and the Russians reverted more to the tactics they used in Chechnya, which involves leveling parts of various cities with artillery so Russian troops can occupy them. The Russian army is indeed poorly trained and poorly supplied. But it is much larger than the Ukrainian army. The war will soon transition to a guerilla/insurgency phase that will “Syrianize” the conflict. This is wildly tragic.
Things discussed like “no fly zones” involving NATO will be considered acts of war, because they are, and will involve shooting down Russian aircraft. It’s not some bloodless intervention where all of a sudden the Russians will say, “We better not fly aircraft.” NATO aircraft will also be shot down. There are long-distance anti-aircraft missiles in Russia and Belarus. There will be NATO casualties, and it will change nothing on the ground.
It will, however, cause a wider war, and that will result in even more refugees leaving impacted countries. Considering that more than 1 million Ukrainians have left their own country, to haven in Poland, imagine what would happen if Poland was drawn into the conflict, and the Russians started bombing across the border. This is, quite literally, insane. As of this writing, it is 15 degrees on the Ukrainian-Polish border, and waits to cross are somewhere between 24-48 hours. Imagine standing out in that with your young children.
What is happening that is marginally encouraging is that many Ukrainians abroad are returning to Ukraine to fight. More than 80,000 Polish Ukrainians have left Poland. This IS their fight. And the downstream effects of that insurgency will keep Russian forces busy for a long time.
The best we can hope for is an early cease-fire, with some accession of territories to sate Putin’s fantasies, as well as some nominal neutrality for Ukraine. This needs to happen before the Russian army levels Kyiv.
I’ve said there ought to be two requirements for anyone advocating for U.S. military forces on the ground in Ukraine. First is that you should be able to find Ukraine on the map. Second, you should be able to run a Jeopardy category on the history of this war. My guess is that 99% of Americans could not pass this test.
Let’s hope for a cease-fire and a temporary end to human suffering.
Pezeshki is a professor in mechanical and materialsengineering at Washington State University.
