Cougars visit sunny San Diego with lofty goals

The Washington State Cougars have yet to play a true cold-weather game and that likely won’t change this week as the Cougs head south to San Diego to challenge future Pac-12 member San Diego State.

The Cougs have used their warmer environments to become one of the hottest teams in college football. With six wins, including victories over the Big 12’s Texas Tech and Big Ten’s Washington, the Cougs are knocking on the door of the Associated Press Top 25 poll.

Temperatures are estimated to be around 60 degrees at 7:30 p.m. today in southern California when WSU (6-1) meets San Diego State (3-3).

The Aztecs are fresh off a bye week and tied with Boise State and Fresno State for first place in the Mountain West Conference. Today’s game is a nonconference meeting as part of the Pac-12/MWC 2024 scheduling agreement and does not count toward the Mountain West standings.

That said, the Aztecs will be eager to beat a future Pac-12 Conference foe on their homecoming weekend while Wazzu has lofty postseason goals at stake.

A slim CFP path

In a college football world governed by TV ratings and brand visibility, WSU’s path to the College Football Playoff is bleak.

But ESPN gives WSU a 13% chance to make the CFP, the Mercury News’ Jon Wilner gives WSU a 5% chance to make it and both numbers are greater than zero.

To make the expanded 12-team playoff, WSU needs to win out and get a lot of help. Texas Tech, which WSU defeated 37-16 on Sept. 7 in Pullman, needs to win or otherwise excel in the Big 12. No. 17 Boise State — the only team to beat Wazzu this season, 45-24 on Sept. 28 in Boise — needs to win out and make the College Football Playoff as the Mountain West champion.

It would also not hurt for Washington to upset some schools in the Big Ten, strengthening WSU’s 24-19 win Sept. 14 in Seattle.

A lot needs to go right, but the Cougs cannot afford to simply scoreboard-watch — they have to win.

Can the Cougs tackle the NCAA’s leading rusher?

San Diego State is home to senior running back Marquez Cooper, the NCAA’s active leading rusher.

Cooper has been the Aztecs’ running back for five seasons, totaling 4,526 yards on 960 attempts in 48 games. Cooper’s freshman year was a four-game, pandemic-effected 2020 season. Since then, he has rushed for no fewer than 1,043 yards in a season over the past three years.

Cooper has 670 yards on 151 carries this season and began the year with an opinion that has aged quite poorly.

After he rushed for 223 yards and two touchdowns versus Texas A&M-Commerce, Cooper said he believed he was better than now-Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty of Boise State.

“I seen what he did today. I don’t think he’s the type of back that I am,” Cooper said in an onfield postgame interview in Week 1. “I think I’m the best back in this conference and I want to make that known.”

The performance that Cooper had seen was Jeanty’s 267-yard, six-touchdown showing versus Georgia Southern on the road.

Mountain West running back beef aside, Wazzu would do well to not give Cooper the type of performance to back up his argument.

WSU has allowed 157.6 rushing yards per game.

Given how close San Diego State played Hawaii and Wyoming this season, the Cougs would be well-served to not let the Aztecs keep it a close game, and that all starts up front.

Scouting San Diego State

San Diego State has had its share of ups and downs this year, but still finds itself with a 2-0 conference record.

The Aztecs opened their season with a 45-14 win over Texas A&M-Commerce, but lost 21-0 to Oregon State the following week. They were trampled in California’s rise to relevance to the tune of a 31-10 defeat and lost by one point to Central Michigan, 22-21, in Mount Pleasant, Mich.

San Diego State squeaked out identical final scores versus Hawaii at home and Wyoming in Laramie, Wyo., winning both 27-24.

WSU beat Hawaii last week in Pullman, 42-10.

On paper, Wazzu should run away with it versus San Diego State. Vegas odds have WSU as two-touchdown favorites, but if the Aztecs win, it will likely be because they exploited WSU’s shaky tackling skills and subpar run defense.

San Diego State’s pass rush, particularly sophomore edge Trey White, a hometown kid from San Diego, has been particularly dangerous with 11 sacks through six games, 10.5 of them coming in the last four games.

Cougar quarterback John Mateer has been sacked 20 times this season.

Using a smaller selection of the playbook, Mateer completed 85% of his passes for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns last week against Hawaii. To do that against the Aztecs, he will meet a defense that has allowed 22.7 points per game and 377 yards per game.

San Diego State has relied on freshman quarterback Danny O’Neil to pass for 1,045 yards through five games. The freshman from Indianapolis, Ind., has passed for six touchdowns and one interception as the Aztecs rely on their run game to sustain their offense.

This is a game a College Football Playoff team should win with ease. Wazzu’s chances of making the playoff are slim, but if it even has a shot, it starts with winning out.

It is a late game, meaning the Cougars will have to sit around all day while San Diego State is fresh off a bye week and playing in front of a homecoming crowd.

Extra points

WSU is 1-1 all-time versus SDSU. The Cougs and Aztecs last met Sept. 17, 2011, with SDSU winning 42-24 in San Diego. WSU won the first meeting 45-17 on Sept. 8, 2007.

Dickert said senior punter Nick Harberer will likely redshirt this year, meaning he could play in at most four regular season games. WSU has five games left in the season.

The Cougars’ senior edge Quinn Roff did not see the field last week, but Dickert said the San Diego native will not miss the chance to play in his old backyard.

Dickert said WSU’s tight end Andre Dollar will be out for an extended period of time.

The basics

What: WSU (6-1) at San Diego State (3-3)

Where: Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego

When: 7:30 p.m. today

TV: CBSSN

Radio: Radio: KHTR-FM (104.3/103.9), KCLX-AM (1450)

Spread: Washington State -14.5 (-102), SDSU +14.5 (-120)

Taylor can be reached at 208-848-2268, staylor@lmtribune.com or on X (formerly Twitter) @Sam_C_Taylor.