Spring chinook forecast in 2025 nothing to celebrate

The return of upriver spring chinook to the Columbia River that starts in a few months will nearly mirror the 2024 run, according to fisheries managers.

That’s the sort-of-good news. The return of Snake River wild and hatchery chinook will be less than mediocre — the bad news.

In 2024, 121,000 adult spring chinook bound for tributaries upstream of Bonneville Dam returned to the Columbia River. That’s a number large enough to provide fisheries but they tended to come with restraints like low bag limits and limited days per week.

This year, fisheries managers are forecasting 122,500 adult spring chinook. But there is another bit of bad news. The return of hatchery spring chinook to the Snake River is forecast at 32,000, a drop of 10,000 compared to last year’s run.

“All of the forecasts are built on jack returns. We had a higher proportion of jacks in the mainstem Columbia River in proportion to what we saw in Idaho and at Lower Granite Dam,” said Chris Sullivan, anadromous fish coordinator for the Idaho Department of Fish and Game at Boise. “It’s not awful but we are unlikely to have full running fisheries that are going seven days a week. It’s probably going to be lower bag limits and less than seven days per week.”

The department will hold meetings next month to tally public comments on possible season structures and the Idaho Fish and Game Commission will set the seasons in March. In most years, fishing opens in April, which is sometimes well before the fish arrive.

Sullivan said the department is forecasting a return of 7,800 wild Snake River spring chinook, which are listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. While that is a hair more than the 7,400 that returned last year, it’s still concerningly low.

Ryan Lothrup, Columbia River policy coordinator for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, said the low number of wild Snake River chinook will constrain fisheries in the lower and middle sections of the Columbia.

“Basically we are in the same spot as we were last year from a fisheries standpoint of rough expectations,” he said.

Other runs

The Columbia River sockeye run is expected to be half of last year’s record-breaking return. Fisheries managers are forecasting 350,000 sockeye will return to the Columbia River. Lothrup said given the circumstances, that is a pretty good forecast and should provide decent fishing on the upper Columbia. Sockeye tend to follow an every-other-year abundance pattern, with fewer fish returning in odd years.

“I would say for a low year this is a great forecast,” he said.

Just a tiny fraction of the sockeye — 3,100 — will be the highly endangered Snake River sockeye.

Lothrup said upper Columbia River summer chinook fishing is likely to be constrained. Fisheries managers are forecasting a return of just 38,000 summer chinook.

Fall fisheries

It’s too early for a fall chinook forecast but there are some encouraging signs. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife released a short report last week indicating that fall chinook upriver of Bonneville Dam generally exceeded preseason forecasts last year and the return of jacks was up as well.

“That suggests you might have a stronger return than last year,” said Lothrup.

Steelhead

While spring, summer and fall chinook fishing is months away, the 2024-25 steelhead fishery is still going strong. Sullivan said the Snake River run that numbered more than 102,000 from July through December hit levels not seen since 2015.

“Those fish will be around in Idaho to fuel the spring fishery,” he said. “I expect a good spring of steelhead fishing pretty much across the board throughout the state.”

As always, the run was dominated by hatchery steelhead. About 29,000 steelhead with intact adipose fins, indicating they may be wild, were counted at Lower Granite Dam.

Barker may be contacted at ebarker@lmtribune.com.