Last May I mentioned that Moscow’s world-famous labor market analytics firm, Emsi, released a free, 41-page e-book titled “The Demographic Drought.” Emsi examined demographic, education, and labor market data, exploring how COVID-19 hastened our future. I recommend that everyone read it (bit.ly/3b7teIE).
In that column, I discussed how there are simply not enough Gen-Xers and millennials to make up for the loss of baby boomers in the workforce. By 2028, there will be a deficit of 6 million U.S. workers. Furthermore, President Biden and the Democrats have driven the U.S. national debt to 128 percent of GDP and are proposing an additional $6 trillion in debt. The Democrats think it is impossible to bankrupt the U.S. and are out to prove themselves right.
The Emsi report also discussed the effect of fewer children enrolled in schools and universities. As a result of the demographic drought, we have 6 million fewer students going to school. Today, I want to look at that effect on the Moscow School District.
The U.S. birth rate peaked between 1945-59. In fact, except for 2008, we’ve been below the 2.1 replacement rate for 50 years, and the U.S. population growth is now the lowest in recorded history. Most of the country’s actual growth is from immigration, but even that is not sustainable.
The top three countries that account for immigration into the U.S. (Mexico, India, and China) also have declining birth rates. In about 40 years, the U.S. and the world as a whole are projected to start losing population, with a total decline of 2 billion people by 2099. Paul Erlich’s 1968 “The Population Bomb” could not have been more wrong.
In 2019, there were 1.2 million high school dropouts. COVID-19 and remote instruction exacerbated that number in 2020. A well-known study from Stanford University found that K-12 students attending online schools are, on average, a half-year behind in reading and an entire year behind in math. How much more so for K-12 students taught in hastily implemented Zoom classes? Many predict that government school children lost a full year of education during the year of COVID-19.
Moscow has already experienced the effect of this declining birthrate. The Moscow School District reached its highest enrollment 30 years ago (1991) with 2,737 students and has had a steady decline since. The 2020-21 enrollment is merely 2,160 students. I say merely because according to the U.S. Census Bureau, Moscow has grown by 29 percent since 1991 while the school district’s enrollment has shrunk by 21 percent.
Where have all the children gone? First, because of the declining U.S. birth rate, they were never born. Second, liberals have fewer kids than conservatives, so there are fewer children in progressive Moscow to attend the government schools.
MSD recognized this reality back in 2012 when they reorganized ninth-graders into Moscow High School and sixth-graders into Moscow Middle School. There were already fewer children nine years ago, so those buildings could accommodate the drop in enrollment. One obvious question Moscow taxpayers should ask is why do we need more teachers, staff and administrators for 21 percent fewer children?
In 2005, there were 2,434 students and 179 teachers.
In 2020, there were 2,160 students and 224 teachers.
That bloat does not include the additional administrators and staff. One effective tactic would be to reduce the number of school district employees to the 2005 levels.
Reducing the number of school buildings would be a second effective tactic, especially with elementary enrollment in the district down 490 students from its peak and with ever fewer students coming in. The smallest schools (West Park Elementary with 156 students and Russell Elementary with 154 students) could easily be assimilated into the remaining elementary schools.
Moscow’s economic setting is changing, and the Moscow School District is a central part of it. In a world with fewer students, fewer taxpayers, skyrocketing property values and property taxes, and a partisan Moscow City Council with an insatiable appetite to tax and spend, local government costs should be handled closely to accommodate the changing financial climate.
As we look to cut costs, following the money leads to the fact that the Moscow School District absorbs fully half of our property taxes. Without being surprised or fooled by the data, we must apply straightforward solutions to meet the demands coming our way.
Courtney served 20 years in nuclear engineering aboard submarines and 15 years as a graduate school instructor. He now spends his spare time chasing his grandchildren around the Palouse.
