New polls show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in at least five of the six swing states that will determine the 2024 presidential election. Yes, it’s a single poll, polls are notoriously unreliable, and it’s far too early for accurate predictions. But for those of us who long to believe in the American people’s commitment to truth, justice, democracy and basic decency, this is a gut punch. After all of Trump’s divisiveness, chaos, lies, scandals and attacks on democracy, that half of America would even consider giving him another go is enough to make one lose faith in humanity.
There’s no point in rehashing Trump’s innumerable failings or comparing them to Biden’s comparatively unremarkable flaws. Everyone knows, and most don’t care. And while it’s tempting to chalk up Trump’s support entirely to misinformation or fanaticism, this doesn’t account for the large numbers of Biden voters now switching camps. Simply put, if half the country would rather hand over our democracy to a pugnacious authoritarian than embrace the left, Democrats need to do some serious soul searching.
Much of Biden’s slipping support is directly related to his policies. The biggest issue is inflation. While economists assure us that the U.S. economy is strong and rapidly recovering from the pandemic, most everyday Americans are still struggling to pay skyrocketing prices for food, housing, energy, childcare, education and medicine. Wages are rising, but not fast enough, and Biden’s administration hasn’t proposed any significant relief since prior to the midterms. Attaching his name to his biggest weakness — Bidenomics! — will be remembered as one of the biggest and most avoidable missteps in PR history.
The border is another salient issue. While most Americans agree that family separations were cruel and un-American, and that a physical wall is a largely symbolic anachronism, there has been no real movement to stem illegal immigration, streamline legal immigration, or do much else to shift the status quo. You don’t have to be a xenophobe to have legitimate concerns about our dismal immigration policies, and even if Biden can’t get a plan through this Congress, he still has a moral imperative to provide leadership on this issue, which he has not.
Foreign policy is the third major issue dogging Biden’s campaign. Barely six months after a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S. was pulled into a new war in Ukraine, and now we are also joining the conflict in Palestine. So far, the Biden administration has offered no distinct end goals, timelines, risk assessments, cost estimates, or meaningful plans beyond open-ended support for our allies. While I support our defense of Ukraine and hold out hope that U.S. involvement can keep the war in Palestine from spiraling into a regional conflict, I understand why many are leery of the U.S. getting pulled into yet more overseas quagmires after decades of war with little to show for it. Were China to choose this moment to invade Taiwan, we could find ourselves fighting wars on three fronts which, justified or not, is hard to stomach given the challenges we face at home.
Policies aside, Biden’s age is another significant liability, especially given the unpopularity of Vice President Harris. Yes, Trump is also old and increasingly incoherent, but he projects energy and strength in a way Biden does not. In a dangerous and fearful world, that carries a lot of political heft. Biden’s choice to run for a second term instead of prepping a worthy successor was deeply disappointing, as is the party’s quiet acquiescence to his candidacy even as his popularity slips. We deserve options, not a coronation.
However, the renewed support for Trump goes beyond the specific flaws of the Biden administration and speaks to a growing distaste for liberal identity politics, cultural pessimism, and sanctimony. Simply put, many liberals come across as pretentious, hypercritical, and humorless (present company included?) such that millions of people would prefer anything else. This will be the topic of my next column, for I believe that the best way to combat the authoritarian right is to rein in the excesses of the left and to promote a positive vision of what we’re for, not just what we’re against.
Urie is a lifelong Idahoan and graduate of the University of Idaho. He lives in Moscow with his wife and two children.
