About death and infection rates
The death rate of COVID-19 is usually estimated using the number of confirmed infection cases. The confirmed cases are people sick enough to be admitted into a hospital but would not include the large number of people who are not hospitalized.
The total number of COVID-19 infections was estimated by researchers at Stanford University to be 54 times the confirmed cases. I believe this number is the best number presently available. For comparison, the 2019 flu season had 30,000 deaths, 500,000 hospitalizations and a model estimated 30,000,000 infections. From these numbers, the 2019 death rate is .10 percent and the factor between the hospitalizations and infections is 60.
The 2018 flu season had 79,400 deaths, 959,000 hospitalizations, and a model estimated 48,800,000 infections. The death rate for the 2018 flu was .16 percent and the factor between hospitalizations and infections was 51. The estimated COVID-19 factor (54) is like the 2019 (60) and 2018 (51) factors.
The present COVID-19 statistics (June 29) include 2,640,000 confirmed cases and 128,000 deaths. Multiplying the confirmed cases by 54 gives 142,560,000 for the approximate number of infections and the death rate would be .09 percent which is very close to the 2019 flu and less than the 2018 flu. I have seen estimates that 60 percent (i.e. 200 million people) of the U.S. population would need to be infected before “herd immunity” is achieved. With proper measures, “herd immunity” could be achieved at 40 percent (i.e. 132 million people which has recently been surpassed) where proper measures such as social distancing, etc. are in place.
This immunity would stop when these measures are relaxed. Assuming a .1 percent death rate, the number of deaths for 60 percent of the population would be 200,000. People who are susceptible to COVID-19 should plan to protect themselves until at least September 2020.
Dean B. Edwards
Moscow
COVID, diversity messages spot on
I just wanted to thank Mayor Lambert and the city council for their actions to help protect the health of our community, and slow down the spread of coronavirus in our area. I also wanted to thank them for their heartfelt message of supporting diversity. This is the Moscow I know and love. Thanks for standing up for our health and against bigotry, even though I’m sure they are facing some stiff opposition from some of our constituents.
Joran Beasley
Moscow
Church service a display of arrogance
The huge crowd of mask-free Christ Church worshipers Sunday is a display of both arrogance and utter disregard for the greater community’s health and wellness. I’m sure our first responders appreciate the gesture. Perhaps since the crowd appeared to be relatively young, it is Doug Wilson’s intention to kill off some of the senior citizens who do not adhere to his xenophobic ideals.
Antone Holmquist
Moscow
Appreciates the mask order
Just wanted to reach out and give my support for the mandatory masks and distancing order that was given yesterday. Thank you so much to the city council and Mayor Lambert. With at-risk family members, we have been wearing masks and limiting trips away from home to necessities only since March. While we fully understand the responsibility for our own health, when the case numbers start rising as they currently are beginning to, it becomes increasingly important for everyone to take care. If the community at large doesn’t take precautions, then everyone is at a higher risk, even to just go to the grocery store or other necessities. Thank you to everyone who is working to make this community safer and thinking about keeping others safe.
Raechel Medina
Moscow
A violation of freedom?
In light of the increasing number of positive COVID-1919 cases, especially here in eastern Washington, Governor Jay Inslee issued a mandatory request for all persons to wear masks in places like grocery stores, places of business and the like. Channel 4 KXLY, recently polled Spokane’s citizens as to whether they would abide by the Governor’s request. Over 50 percent who responded said “no” and stated it was a violation of their freedom. Really?
We are required by law to wear seat belts when we drive, use approved safety seats for children in cars. Do these same citizens violate the law by not using seat belts and child safety seats which are both safety measures no different than wearing a face mask during a pandemic. Do they say it is a violation of their freedom? Could it be more a political motivation rather than using intelligent critical thinking for the health safety of our family, friends and community as a whole?
I now have a statement on my face mask which says, “Only highly intelligent people wear face masks.” For me, as well as all others who wear masks it is a profound truth. Suspect the nonwearers are mentally incapable of understanding the need for the health safety of our community as a whole. That sadly includes the deeply lacking leadership of our country.
Janet C. Smith
Spokane
